Recent Developments in the Middle East

MR. MACINNES: Good morning. The Foreign Press Center here in Washington is delighted to have today Ambassador David Welch, the Assistant Secretary for the Office of Near East and North Africa, to brief today an update on the Middle East. We have joining us from New York via DVC our Foreign Press Center in New York. I'll please ask you to turn your cell phones off. During the question-and-answer session, please identify yourself and your institution and try to limit yourself to one question. We can always do follow-ups.

David, please.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Hello, everybody. I'll say a couple of words at the outset, then we'll open it up to questions and I'll try to give you answers. We've had -- today's Friday and we're closing out a very consequential week for issues in the Middle East. We began this week with the referendum vote in Iraq and it seems to have proceeded well and we're awaiting official results of that. We, yesterday, saw for the second time this year the President of the Palestinian Authority as a guest of President Bush at the White House. And this morning, we have received the Mehlis report into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, which will attract attention to the issues involving destabilizing Syrian actions in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine.

I would like to begin my remarks by concentrating on the meeting yesterday between President Bush and President Mahmoud Abbas, and I do that only because we're fresh from that experience and I had intended for this briefing to concentrate on those things, not anticipating at the time that we would have these other things coming together as well in the same way. But I welcome your questions on these or any other matters involving my area of responsibilities in the Middle East.

This is the second visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House this year and, as President Bush said yesterday, it's been an important and eventful year on the Israeli-Palestinian front. In mid-September, Israel's withdrawal of military forces and settlers from Gaza was completed. That marks a moment of opportunity now to turn our attention to trying to revive the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians on the basis of greater trust and confidence that the two parties can work together to make this happen.

Had a very good discussion with President Abbas. He and the President have a good, warm relationship and they were able to exchange views on a variety of issues, and this time looking beyond the Israeli-Palestinian question to other developments in the region as well, in particular in Lebanon.

On the Israeli-Palestinian track, the two presidents had a good look at what has happened this year and what we expect now to turn our attention to. I'd like to focus on a couple of elements of that and just say a couple words about each.

First with respect to the way forward, we see that as comprised of work in three separate areas. Excuse me one moment, please. We would like to see the work of the Wolfensohn mission accelerated and advance to completion. President Bush also met this week with Mr. Wolfensohn. (Cell phone rings.) I thought people were supposed to turn off their mobiles. Journalists are genetically incapable of turning off mobiles. You should try my trick, which is to mute the thing, put it on vibrate. Almost any cell phone you buy nowadays will do that.

QUESTION: Sorry about that.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: No apology necessary.

Where was it? Wolfensohn. We'd like to see that work completed so that we can get back to looking at what the next stage of enhancing economic opportunity and prosperity for the Palestinians is, and that's dealing with their immediate budget problems and then their development plans for the medium term.

The second element that was discussed between the two presidents is the security picture. Any advance in the peace process must rest on an end to violence and terror. Solidifying the security consolidation of the Palestinian security authorities is absolutely fundamental and establishing the rule of law and public order in the Palestinian community is very necessary. And of course, maintaining an end to violence and terror against Israelis is equally as important.

We have, as you know, a security coordinator, General Ward, working on these issues. General Ward is drawing near the end of his tenure and the President and Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense are now considering the appointment of another office to succeed him to continue this mission and even to enhance it.

Third, the two presidents discussed the bilateral issues between Israel and the Palestinians, both to advance the points I just made but also to look at the understandings reached in the summit at Sharm el-Sheikh between Prime Minister Sharon and President Abbas and to encourage further progress on those. As you know, that's the turnover of villages and towns in the West Bank, the consolidation of the ceasefire, release of prisoners, enabling freedom of movement by Palestinians in the West Bank.

Finally, then we reflected in the President's public statement on things we would not like to see happen. Of course, I mentioned one which is fundamental throughout, which is there should be no further violence and terror. But also the President remarked publicly once again on his concern about any unilateral actions that would prejudge final status issues or make it more complicated to advance our goal of getting to real peace negotiations.

So with those brief remarks to introduce these topics, I'll answer any questions you have.

QUESTION: Umit Enginsoy, NTV Turkey. In the last few years, Turkey has had quite close relationship -- has had a quite close relationship with Syria. In light of the latest report and other things, how would you like Turkey to treat Syria?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, I presume others might ask for my views on the report itself and the developments and the investigation. I'll answer that question if you ask it. With respect to what Turkey would do with Syria, it's not my business to advise Turkey what to do. It will make its decisions on the basis of its national interest.

That said, I would think that any country looking at these developments would have to be concerned about this latest information and take its decisions accordingly.

QUESTION: Can I get a question on Syria?

MR. MACINNES: Yes, but why don't we --

QUESTION: No, because --

MR. MACINNES: I know. Why don't we wait till we get some --

QUESTION: He's inviting a question on Syria. Could we turn to Syria, which is --

MR. MACINNES: We will, but why don't we let some of the others who don't ever get --

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: It is the Foreign Press Center, Barry.

MR. MACINNES: We won't forget you.

QUESTION: Mr. Welch, it's Michel Ghandour, Al Hurra Television. The Mehlis report concluded that high-ranking Lebanon and Syrian officials were involved in the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. What are you considering to do after this report?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: If you'll bear with me, there are some things I would like to say on this general issue and then I will answer your specific question at the conclusion.

First of all, we commend Judge Mehlis and the team who worked with him for their professionalism and their courage during this investigation and for producing a report that looks, at first reading to us, to be very factual and very credible.

Second, we commend the extensive cooperation of Lebanon, whose judicial and security authorities have, as Mr. Mehlis said, proved during the investigation that with international assistance and support they can move ahead and at times take the lead in an effective and professional manner.

With respect to the Mehlis report, sir, this is a very serious and deeply disturbing report. As it states, "There is converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act."

The report makes clear the political motive for this terrorist act which, as it states, came to a head in meeting between former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and President Bashar al-Assad on August 26, 2004.

Second, the report points to a conspiracy that involves Syria.

Third, the report details false statements, a lack of cooperation and rehearsed testimony.

Fourth, the report concludes, and again I quote, "There is probable cause" to believe that the decision to assassinate Rafiq Hariri could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials and could not have been further organized without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security services. Again, I'm quoting from the report itself.

We stand with the Lebanese people, the families of the victims and the international community in calling for accountability for this terrible act. The people of Lebanon must also know that they would be free from executions, assassinations and threats and that the international community will not tolerate such tools of repression and intimidation to further destabilize Lebanon.

In answer to your specific question, sir, we are immediately going to begin consultations in the Security Council and in the region on the next steps that should be taken by the international community. For now, I'd like to leave it at that.

MR. MACINNES: We're going to go to New York, who has a question. New York, please go ahead.

QUESTION: Yes, I would like to follow up on that question. My name is Raud Neeme, Estonian Television. Actually, I have a two-part question. First of all, the United States is working close with France on the resolution regarding Syria. Is that a sign (inaudible) between those two countries? And secondly, we hear that this resolution is meant to isolate Syria somehow. Could you elaborate on what will be in this document? What is discussed now?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: First, we are beginning our consultations with our partners in the Security Council and I don't want to foreshadow what the outcome of those consultations might be at this stage.

Yes, the United States and France have been discussing these subjects for quite some time. As you know, France and the United States both have very good relations with the Government of Lebanon and an historical interest in seeing that country maintain and secure its sovereignty and independence and we have been discussing issues involving Lebanon for some time. That said, there are other partners that we have in the Security Council and other countries in the region with a deep interest in what goes on in Lebanon and vis-à-vis Syria, and we shall also be talking to them as well.

QUESTION: Omar Razek, BBC Arabic. My question may be a bit cynical, but I have to raise it. Are you going to prepare another (inaudible) scenario for Syria this time and the Arab public opinion might ask this will affect badly or negatively the relations between United States and Arab world, especially after many Arab governments expressed their concern about the situation in Iraq? Have you consulted with your original friends in the Middle East, especially Egypt, which has strong relations with Syria, about the next step toward Syria?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, yes, sir, of course we talk to our friends in the region all the time and regularly about these issues, including this one. Let's not forget what initiates this concern. It isn't because the United States or any other country on the Security Council suddenly woke up and decided that it wanted to talk about Damascus's behavior. The concern here is what has happened in terms of destabilizing actions initiated by the government in Damascus. That is the concern not just to the United States but of the international community. And the international community has chosen to express itself in a number of ways, including previous Security Council resolutions about that.

The obligations of Syria to play a responsible role in this neighborhood are clear. They're in Resolution 1559. They're in Resolution 1546. In Resolution 1566, which more broadly speaking, deals with terrorism generally. So it isn't that we are starting this conversation. We are forced to have this conversation because of the irresponsible acts of the Syrian Government.

QUESTION: This is Tsutomu Ishiai with Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun. According to the Japanese Government, actually the Japanese police agency sent some technical experts to cooperate with that investigation and determined the vehicle was actually stolen in Japan and it was Mitsubishi's vehicle. So as you mentioned also the report is factual and credible, so could you tell me if you -- did you send any technical experts from the United States to cooperate on any investigation and do you have any facts you can prove -- you can verify independently?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, thank you for asking. First, this was an international investigation and experts from several countries participated. I've read the reports, sir, just as I assume you have. I only just received it and I'm sure that, like any other law enforcement investigation, there is probably information that Mr. Mehlis possesses that he has chosen not to put in his report. So I can only comment on what I have read and I have to say it is a very thorough, professional and exhaustive presentation reflecting a lot of hard work by some very skilled and determined people. It is stunning in some of the things that it reveals. How the pieces fit together, I think it's better that you ask the people responsible for the report this question. All I know is what they have written for us to consider and I summarized there what our view is of it.

And now the next stage is for us to discuss with our partners in the Security Council and in the region and other concerned countries who want to act against international terrorism what should be done about this. Those responsible, in our judgment, should be accountable.

QUESTION: So indeed the report doesn't name names? If that's wrong, please correct that? I only have a report here, of course, newspaper reports. But is the focus, as the so-called ringleader, according to an anonymous diplomat, the focus of the investigation the President's brother-in-law, the intelligence chief of Syria?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, I only know what's in the report, Barry, and there are names in this report in any number of places. And rather than parse how those are presented, I'd just refer you to the document itself.

As I said, our conclusion at the first reading is that this is an exhaustive, thorough accounting. I presume that the investigators retain other information that they might find useful in continuing the investigation or for law enforcement and prosecution purposes.

As I said, this report is very serious and deeply disturbing. Just in the elements that I mentioned alone, there is cause for grave concern. And what are those elements? I'll repeat them again for you: that there was a political motive to this crime: number two that, there appears to have been a sophisticated conspiracy, the organization of which is detailed exhaustibly in the report; number three, it mentions false statements, lack of cooperation and rehearsed testimony; and concludes therefore, there is probable cause with all that that entails for a prosecutor to state that there was a decision to murder Rafiq Hariri and that this could not have been taken without the approval of high-ranking Syrians and could not have been organized without collusion with some of their Lebanese counterparts. Beyond that, I don't want to go right now.

QUESTION: Did you put the word "intelligence" in front of -- did I write it down wrong? Without the collusion of high-ranking --

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Syrian security officials

QUESTION: Security. It is security.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: In this, I was quoting directly from the report so, you know, this is there if you wish to look at it.

MR. MACINNES: Samir.

QUESTION: Samir Nader, Radio Sawa. Sir, the investigations are not finished yet; according to the State Department yesterday, the report is not completed and the UN extended the mission of Judge Mehlis. Do you expect his continuing investigation to include the causes of the death of the Syrian Minister of Interior and other top Syrian officials? And how do you expect Syria is going to cooperate with his mission?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, I don't know if I can answer, Samir, all those questions right now, to be honest with you. First, there is a Lebanese investigation and there have been other crimes committed in Lebanon, and I think in one point that is mentioned in the report as well. I'm confident that the Lebanese Government will continue to pursue this investigation and those others as well.

Number two, Mr. Mehlis in this report does make a number of recommendations about the continuing course of the investigation. Some of those may entail the need for international support, including from his team. And we would obviously want to see that satisfied. As we've said all along, you know, we would like to see the truth come out, whatever the truth is. We would like to see this investigation, you know, fully completed and those responsible for this crime and any other acts of terrorism in Lebanon brought to justice.

QUESTION: Margery Friesner, ANSA, the Italian News Agency. And when you were reporting on the meeting yesterday between Abu Mazen and the President, you talked about ways to go forward and you listed three. You never once mentioned the words "roadmap." And my question is, in a little over two months, the roadmap will have reached the point of failing every single objective that it laid down. Is the Administration going to replace it with another peace plan or what?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Thank you for asking the question. Well, the roadmap is mentioned, in fact, by President Bush in his remarks yesterday. He recites the obligations of the parties with respect to the roadmap. I believe, and I think my confidence in this is shared by the roadmap's authors, the Quartet, that it offers the only agreed international basis to move forward toward negotiations.

I disagree. I think, in fact, it is happening, that the coordination between the parties that was renewed this year and was -- happily succeeded in helping the disengagement of Israeli forces and settlers from Gaza is evidence of the fact the parties are coming together to talk about some of the issues, including some that are on the roadmap.

We still see the roadmap as the valid way to proceed forward. If you recall in September when we had a ministerial level meeting of the Quartet, there was a statement issued afterwards that pointed to the roadmap as the way forward. This remains our policy. There is no intent to change that roadmap and no intent to substitute something for it.

QUESTION: So there will be an extension of the dates?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, the dates are -- the roadmap is a phased program of actions by each party which are intended to support building confidence and trust and move progressively through to negotiations. In some of the -- in, I guess, the latter two phases of the roadmap, if you open up the document or read it in detail, there are dates mentioned. But the concept was back then that, you know, we could look reasonably at that time horizon. Those dates obviously would need to be refreshed as you proceed through these phases of the roadmap. But the phases remain valid. There are actions that each party should do in each one and you know, that progressively lead to a more established negotiation about final status issues in the end, and the object of those negotiations is to realize two states living side by side.

Yes, sir.

QUESTION: Emad Mekay with (inaudible) Inter Press Service. Sir, Syria responded to the report today by saying it's a political statement. And I was wondering if you found in the report anything that is not a political statement, any concrete evidence that convinced the U.S. Government that the Syrians are, indeed, involved, and what is that evidence?

And my second question is on the step forward, the next step, you mentioned that you will be talking to your partners in the region. I would like you to please update us on the position of the Arab regimes, especially in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Are they on the same wavelength on isolating the Syrian regime? Have they objected to the report in any way or what you plan with the Security Council?

Thank you

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, with respect to your first question, you will have to evaluate for yourself the content and meaning of Syrian statements. I want to repeat something I said earlier: This report contains the conclusion that there is a political motive for this terrorist act. In that sense, I suppose you could say that the word
"political" appears in it. I don't find in reading this report any suggestion that it is motivated. I think this report reflects hard work by skilled, competent, international law enforcement officials. Judge Mehlis is a gentleman with a considerable reputation in that field. I doubt he saw his task as politically oriented.

With respect to the positions of our friends in the Arab world, again, I'm an American diplomat. I represent the United States Government. I'm up here saying things on behalf of my government. You'd have to ask other governments what their opinions are. I've had this conversation with most of those governments, sir, and I think we're all concerned that there should be an environment of security and stability in the area and that we are worried about things that disturb that. And I think our concern about destabilizing actions from Syria is shared by some among those other governments.

QUESTION: Thank you. I'm Nathan Guttman from the Jerusalem Post. Going back to the Bush-Abbas meeting from yesterday, President Abbas said that all parties will be able to take part in the elections. And the only thing President -- I'm sorry, President Abbas said that -- and President Bush said that the Palestinians will need to confront armed gangs. He did not mention dismantling or disarming the Hamas. Could you explain to us what it means to confront the armed gangs?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, first of all, President Abbas has said that he's running on a platform of peace, that his government represents an offer of peace to Israel and the Israeli people. We support that. Second, he also believes that within in the Palestinian community there should be one authority, one law and one gun. That is his policy, but our observation on that is that that strikes us as a fundamental element of responsibility for any government, especially a friendly one with which we would deal.

How the political process unfolds for Palestinian elections is up to the Palestinians to decide. In our judgment and, frankly, in the judgment of the international community, we have a concern about the activities of armed groups or militias and their participation in the democratic process. We believe there is a contradiction there, that this contradiction must be addressed. How it is addressed is up to President Abbas and the Palestinian people. We ask that it be addressed.

Finally, I would say that there is also an obligation in phase one of the roadmap for the Palestinian Authority to work for the dismantlement of terror organizations. We expect that that obligation should be adhered to and we ask the Palestinian Authority to take steps to the realization of that goal. Again, that's an obligation they have assumed also and therefore we hold them to it.

MR. MACINNES: Hoda.

QUESTION: Thank you. Hoda Tawfik, correspondent, Al-Ahram, Egypt.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Hi.

QUESTION: Are you going to wait for the next -- the next investigation now that it has been extended by the Secretary General till December? If you are going to take steps against Syria, is this going to wait till the extension and the results of the next phase of investigation, or is there anything imminent now and what is it?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, I believe you came in a little late --

QUESTION: Sorry.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: It's okay. I said earlier that we're concerned about -- deeply disturbed by this report. There are some very grave implications to its content and we will discuss with our partners in the Security Council and our friends in the region what to do about it.

In addition to that, we would like to see the investigation of this crime, which killed nearly two dozen people and wounded a very large number of others and among the victims were several nationalities, we would like to see this investigation completed. And we would like to see those responsible for other terrorist crimes in Lebanon brought to justice.

When I was in Beirut recently I went to the hospital to see one of your journalist colleagues, May Shediac, who was grievously wounded in one of these terrorist attacks. And, you know, I think people like her who has suffered from these crimes deserve to know that those who did it are being brought to justice. And the people of Lebanon need to be free from the intimidation that this sort of thing produces.

So we're going to press ahead on all fronts to see the investigation is completed and to hold accountable those who have been reported to have been involved. The Mehlis report now provides us a basis for that conversation with our friends and our partners in the Security Council.

QUESTION: (Off-mike.)

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: There are others who --

QUESTION: (Off-mike.)

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Pardon me?

QUESTION: What is reported about the resolutions from the Security Council?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, the Security Council hasn't acted on anything yet. Let's not anticipate what the content of the discussion would be. As I said, we are immediately going to begin that conversation with our partners in the Security Council and we will see what steps are necessary.

QUESTION: Hi. Tal Schneider from Maariv, Israel. You said you are consulting with the friends in the region. And I was wondering, are you taking into account the instability that might outcome the -- you know, even before the Security Council will decide to do something, the instability of the regime, of the Syrian regime? Are you talking with Israeli partners about any possible instability of the Syrian Government and the implication about -- of Israel?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, no, not in that respect. Look, as you know, I was recently in Israel and our discussions with the Israeli Government always cover a lot of different elements. Israel lives in a difficult neighborhood and I think they have a right to be concerned about what goes on next door. And as victims of terrorism themselves, Israelis have a reason to worry about the actions and the direction provided to terrorists from Damascus. And yes, I do discuss that with Israeli officials.

But, if I -- I think I know where your question is leading and I want to -- because others in the audience may misunderstand this, I want to be clear on one thing here. Israel wasn't involved, as far as I know, in this act. Israel does not come up in the Mehlis report. And I don't see any intention on the part of Israel to raise a difficulty or a provocation in this situation; quite the contrary, I think they have a legitimate reason to be concerned that there may be an incident or a provocation from others. And you know, I can understand that concern given the history.

QUESTION: Mr. Welch, are you making a Lebanese trial or international trial in this matter? Michel Ghandour, Al Hurra, again.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: We're going too far down the track here. I don't know what the conclusion to this process will be. We back the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon. Lebanon has a judicial system and we expect it to function. As I said, there are investigations underway within Lebanon and we would like to see those -- the truth brought out in those investigations and that those responsible for such acts be brought to justice.

It could be that the Lebanon Government would seek, as it has done in the case of this commission, international help or support. I don't know exactly that they would do so or how they would do so; it's up to the Government of Lebanon. I think just like with the Mehlis investigation, I think the Government of Lebanon would likely find the international community supportive of their needs, if requested.

QUESTION: My name is Sawai with Japanese News Agency Kyodo News. Mr. Ambassador, you emphasized the next steps should be taken by the international community. Does it mean you are not considering any unilateral action against Syria; for example, such as imposing further sanctions?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, we already have or had our difficulties with Syria and as a result have a number of measures imposed on Syria, including sanctions. As an outcome of the murder of Rafiq Hariri, as you know, the United States withdrew its ambassador from Syria and she has not returned. There could be other measures. We haven't taken any decision in that respect. I think Secretary Rice testified to the question that you ask just this week, and I have nothing further to add beyond her testimony at this point.

QUESTION: Reha Atasagan with Turkish Television. The other day here, the State Department senior advisor and the coordinator for Iraq said they expect from the neighboring countries to Syria to put pressure on Syria. Now, after this report came, can you give us a sense of what are your expectations from the neighboring countries to Syria and especially from Turkey?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Well, I was asked about Turkey earlier.

QUESTION: Just a follow-up to that.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Turkey is a good friend of the United States and certainly one of those countries in the region with whom we would continue to consult about these issues. Turkey's national interests are involved, of course.

You know, with very, very few exceptions, most governments in this region behave responsibly. We have, unfortunately, one or two glaring exceptions and Syria is one. And as I said earlier, we do consult regularly and fully with all our partners in the area to try and deal with the implications of Syrian misbehavior. That process was occurring before this investigation, it is still occurring, and it will likely occur until we see those behaviors changed.

QUESTION: Omar Razek, BBC Arabic. Sir, you mentioned that the name of the President Assad was mentioned in the report about the meeting between him and the late Hariri on the 20th of August. Do you think that Syrian President himself might be a target of an investigation in a follow -- a coming investigation?

Will the -- the second part. Will the United States ask for a regime change in Syria if the President himself was aware of the conspiracy for Hariri.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: Those are two hypothetical questions, sir, and I can't really address either one. You'd have to ask the first to Mr. Mehlis. There are passages in his report which would suggest that there was an interest on the part of his team in talking with President Assad, but that the Syrian Government, among other steps it took, did not cooperate with that request. Beyond that, that's what's in the report and for any further elaboration on why that request was made or what might be done in the future in that respect, you'd have to ask Mr. Mehlis.

QUESTION: Are you after regime change in Syria?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY WELCH: We are concerned with Syrian behavior.

MR. MACINNES: Thank you, Ambassador Welch.