10:15 A.M. EST
MR. BRAZIER: Ladies and gentlemen, we're happy at the Foreign Press Center today to welcome Brigadier General John J. Kelly, Jr., or Jack. He is the Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He is responsible for the day-to-day management of NOAA's domestic and international operations.
General Kelly is the U.S. principal representative with the World Meteorology Organization or WMO, and he previously was known to many Americans as the Director of the National Weather Service.
So we welcome him. He will make a statement and then take any questions.
Thank you very much for coming today, Jack.
BG KELLY: Thank you. And first, I'd like to thank Margaret for organizing the briefing. Appreciate it. And I'm here representing my boss, who is ill with pneumonia. And since he and I are about the same age, when you get to be our age and you have that, it's not good.
But the reason we're together today is, I want to talk about something called the Global Earth Observing System or Systems (GEOS), as it's called, and he is one of four chairs for that international effort; he is joined by the European Commission, Japan, and South Africa. It should be pretty obvious that South Africa represents the developing world because the other three represent the developed world.
And in a week-and-a-half, in Brussels, on the 16th of February, ministers of 59 countries and 33 global organizations will get together to adopt a 10-year plan to integrate the many observing systems that are currently operating in some state of independence from each other and to try to understand the gaps that exist and find a way to replace or to fill those gaps.
We, in the United States, are particularly delighted that our new Secretary of Commerce, who will be sworn in on Monday, will make his first international trip to represent the United States at that summit. We're also particularly pleased that we started this effort a little over a year-and-a-half ago with some 33 countries, and as I mentioned earlier, we've almost doubled that number. So in this international business, in a year-and-a-half, if you can double the international participation in something, you're really making some progress. And if, in fact, you can come up and reach agreement on a 10-year plan, I think it's moving almost, to use a science term, with the speed of light.
And the reason, I think, that this is happening is everyone understands that the range of benefits from this effort is nearly as vast as the planet itself. And you only have to take a look at the most recent disaster in South Asia, the tsunami, to think about if we would have had a system like this in place, might we have been able to reduce the loss of lives from that tragedy, because the sad fact of life is that that tragedy, while not preventable, was, in fact, detectable.
And so technology was not a limiting factor in our ability to put an early warning system in place. There were other factors that came to bear in that; and hopefully, this GEOS will help us take care of that.
What GEOS has done for the first time is got the scientists and the political forces talking together and got the political will to establish a mechanism to put in place observing systems and information systems to help reduce disasters and help provide information that will help both the developed and the developing world make better decisions relative to public safety and the environment. And so it really does put together a planning framework for all key elements to get together.
We're also happy that India, Indonesia and Thailand were part of the system prior to what happened in December. And Malaysia will join us in Brussels, so we do have key elements of that part of the region unrepresented. And as I said earlier, that system will help us get better information to make sounder decisions both about the economy and about safety.
And so with that as kind of the backdrop, I'd be willing to talk to all of you about what you want to know about this effort.
QUESTION: I'm Emanuele Riccardi from Italian News Wire, ANSA.
Could you be a little more specific about the system? What are we going to have in the next few years in a very concrete way?
BG KELLY: Okay. First of all, what we have right now are a number of systems out there, so let's use one that I am intimately familiar with, which is on the weather side.
QUESTION: Okay.
BG KELLY: Right now, 187 countries around the world have banded together under a UN specialized agency called the World Meteorological Organization to agree to exchange weather information and agree to data formats and, in the science business, called metadata, a standard for the weather data; and so weather information moves freely around the world to the weather organizations. That is the exception rather than the rule in most other areas.
A number of countries around the world operate satellites. There is not a like agreement or arrangement among them to exchange information or even to agree on standards. And so we have some countries banding together informally to agree to use a given set of frequencies for certain types of things. Other countries don't agree to that. And so it's difficult sometimes to exchange satellite or observational information from satellites. GEOS offers the opportunity for the countries in a more formal way to get together to reach some agreement.
On the ocean side, 26 countries in the Pacific – the United States, Japan and 24 other countries -- reached agreement about how we might be able to develop an observing network and how we could develop a communication network where we would collect data from those observations; how we would then turn that data into information about the occurrence of tsunamis and we get those warnings out. That system works well in the Pacific Ocean. There's not such a system in the Indian Ocean. And a mechanism like GEOS could help to put a system like that in place.
So it's an attempt to take what's out there now and try to organize it better. It's also an attempt to take a look at what's out there now and try to figure out how one could leverage what's out there now so that we don't duplicate each other.
QUESTION: And what about the Atlantic?
BG KELLY: In the Atlantic, Europe and the United States work together very well, but let's talk about tsunamis as an example, and I acknowledge the fact that that happens to be the current focus of everyone. There's no tsunami warning system in the Mediterranean. The risk is not high there would be a tsunami, but it's not zero. There's not a tsunami warning system in the Atlantic or in the Caribbean. The risk is not as high as in the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean. About 85 percent of the tsunamis that have occurred around the world have occurred in the Pacific Ocean basin. The risk elsewhere is not zero, but it's not that high. We don't have early warning systems. The United States is committed, at least in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, to remedy that. We're going to put in place a system. But one of the first-order tasks that GEOS will have is to try to put in place a world or a global system to do it. The first priority will, of course, be the Indian Ocean, but there are other holes that will, in fact, need to be filled.
QUESTION: What percentage of tsunami you said happened in the Pacific, Indian Ocean?
BG KELLY: About 85 percent of the tsunamis that occur, occur in the Pacific Ocean, so 15 percent occur in the other ocean basins of the world. So the greatest threat is in the Pacific. And so it's understandable why, in fact, there's a system in place in the Pacific Ocean.
MR. BRAZIER: If I could ask, what would you like to see, Jack, in 10 years? What would be the optimal system, cooperation, abilities?
BG KELLY: This first thing I, personally, would like to see happen, and I'll use an example, and to protect the innocent, I'll not be very specific as to countries. But we have worked with a country to improve their ability to measure what is going on in the rivers in that country that have a tendency to flood. And so we've put an observing system in place, a telecommunications system, to collect the data from that, and we've given them the capacity, based on that information, to then develop forecast models of what is the volume in speed with which the water is going to move through that river basin such that they will be able to get information out to the citizens of the country in advance of floods to get out of the way of floods.
The key piece of information they need is how much water is going to come into that river from a river that feeds into it from another country. And those two countries have not been, until very recently, willing to share data with each other. And so the key element that the country that we've put the instruments in needs to know it comes from a bordering country; and that country has viewed that data as proprietary and has not made that available to the neighboring country.
I would like to see us find a way to work together around the world to sort out what is the essential elements of information that we all need for public safety, and make that information available to everyone because, in fact, the rivers, the oceans and the atmosphere just have this nasty habit of not recognizing the geographic borders that we, humankind, put in place. And this is a mechanism to get people talking together about those kinds of things. I'd like to see that happen.
I'd also like to see -- and this is particularly true in the developing world -- the countries are faced with very difficult economic times, and finding the resources to maintain the existing observation systems, which provide important information to everyone, has proven to be a challenge. And so, hopefully, through this process, we can get both -- get the developed world to understand that problem better and we can find a way to get some resource mobilization to keep the essential systems up and operational. Because, in fact, those systems provide important data to everyone.
And I'll use another example. The United States Government does not spend a lot of money, but does spend money to keep observing networks in the Caribbean up and running, in part, because it's something that is good for those countries. But there is also another reason: That information is essential to us to understand what's going on with tropical storms and is a key element to our ability to accurately forecast the track of tropical storms. And so, we do it because it helps us protect the citizens of this country. That happens in some parts of the world, but it doesn't happen in enough parts of the world -- most particularly, with the developing countries.
And so, this is an opportunity to get ministers of countries to sit down and talk about that; heretofore, what's happened is, we've had the scientists of the countries talking about it. And in the Indian Ocean -- I'll use that as an example -- the scientists from that region have been talking about the need to do something for at least 10 years, and the scientists have developed a plan.
One of the reasons I'm so optimistic we can do something in the Indian Ocean is, we know what needs to be put in place and we, by and large, know where it needs to be put in place, and scientists working for the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission have for at least the last five years been refining the plan but we've never been able to find a way to get the resources to put in place to do that.
While the tragedy that occurred in late December has now focused the world's attention on that, the more basic question is: How many other things like that are out there that the scientists know what we need to do but we've been unable to get the political will to tackle, and this GEOS holds the hope that that could happen.
QUESTION: Do we know how much this global system will cost and how will be -- what will be the burden shared?
BG KELLY: No, that is going to be one of the interesting things that is going to be discussed in Brussels. We have bits and pieces of it. Using the Indian Ocean as an example, if you move off of the amount of money that's been promised for relief, and there's billions of dollars of work that needs to be done on the relief side, putting in a warning system is in the order of tens of millions of dollars, less than $40 million. And I believe if one were to look through all the commitments that have been made, it will not be a dollar issue or a Japanese yen issue or a deutschemark issue. I think governments have signaled their willingness to provide the necessary resources to make that --
QUESTION: So it's cheap, I mean?
BG KELLY: It's inexpensive. And you might -- I have it -- whenever I talk about tens of millions, I have a difficult time saying it's cheap, but --
QUESTION: But it's inexpensive.
BG KELLY: But it's inexpensive. And the numbers to do it pale in comparison to the numbers of lives that were lost.
Now I should also point something else out about what GOES is doing because it is important to think about in what happened in the Indian Ocean. There is a technology component; that is, putting sensors out there. There's a communications component; that is, collecting information. But there is also a key component of what the countries will do when they get armed with the information and there is a component about: Do you have in place plans to move citizens out of the way? Do you have education programs to educate them about what they have to do?
And GEOS also provides -- because you have more than just physical scientists in the room, you have sociologists in the room, you have disaster relief agencies in the room -- and so one of the things you have to do is also carry on a continued education program. And we know how to do that. The United States does it. Japan does it quite well with earthquakes and with tsunamis. Some other countries of the world don't do it as well as some other parts of the world.
So it is a multifaceted issue that has to be done. What we in the United States did earlier this week was to talk with representatives of the Government of Japan about some of the lessons that both our countries have learned relative to how to educate the public about disasters and what they have to do to move out of the way of disasters.
QUESTION: I mean, you may give a little picture as to the extent of international collaboration to get up to this point, I mean, all of the kind of the interim GEO meetings and --
BG KELLY: Well, there's been a number --
QUESTION: -- and the (inaudible) summit.
BG KELLY: Well, I think the fact that in July of 2003, we started with a small number of countries and over time we've met at the working level, it'll be the sixth working level meeting. It'll be the third summit but I call it the penultimate one, that you're going to get.
Now, clearly, if there's 190 organizations -- or countries and territories represented in the United Nations, you're going to have 60 of them represented in Brussels committing to do something, it's obvious that this is an idea whose time has come because you're getting countries joining on it. And for the international side of the house, as I said earlier, 18 months is not a long time to reach agreement on something.
So we have had a summit in the United States, we've had a summit in Japan, we're going to have a summit in Brussels, we've had a number of working group meetings, one in South Africa, we've had one in Canada, and now we're going to have another one in Brussels. And then there's been subordinate level meetings going on. But I think the big news is people are going to get together on the 16th of February and affirm a resolution and adopt a 10-year plan on what needs to be done.
And then actually, not to be politically incorrect, then the fun is going to begin because then you are going to start talking about money and more specifics about what you have to do. But first of all, you've got to get your political masters to agree that this is something that, in fact, needs to be done.
QUESTION: How important do you think was the tsunami in sort of bringing people together on this?
BG KELLY: I think that there was movement afoot, but I think the tsunami drove home the point about what was said, and that is we know technically what needs to be done to better prepare the world, to make it more disaster-resilient, and the tsunami drove home the point, I think, as to how vulnerable we were. Because if you stop and think about it, the earthquake happened, and we should all remember that this was quite a significant earthquake, 9.0, so it's one of the top four in the past century. So it was massive in and of itself. The seismic folks can give you all the characteristics of it. So it generated this -- that the ocean responded in a very significant way and there were people in coastal communities in India and in Sri Lanka two hours after it occurred, not realizing what was about to hit them. And, in fact, we have in place -- and it works in the Pacific -- that could have told them something was coming. And so that, I think, brings home the fact that we need to do something.
And so the first thing GEOS, I believe, is going to adopt is we need to do something about a tsunami warning system for the world. And so I think it gave added urgency to the need to do that. And one of my hopes is that it helped reduce the tension that will come when we start talking about where the resources are coming from.
QUESTION: How do you notify people? I didn't know about it until more than 24 hours after it happened, and I've got cable and cell phones and -- but I didn't have anything turned on.
BG KELLY: Well, I think -- first of all, when the tsunami was generated, think about dropping a rock in a lake, and things radiate in all directions. So when the earthquake occurred and the tsunami was generated, it went in all directions. And, in fact, I believe if you go talk to the Government of Japan, they will tell you sometime later they recorded it in some of the tide gauges they have along the coast of Japan and we recorded it along the tide gauges we had in Florida, except it was just this little blip, not the 30-foot or 40-foot wall.
I believe that had a tsunami been generated that would have affected the Japanese mainland or any of the 26 countries that are a part of the system in Japan, you would have known about it.
QUESTION: And how do you notify people? That was the question I asked.
BG KELLY: Okay. The way you notify people are -- and I'll talk from the United States. If you go on the islands of Hawaii, sirens go off if a tsunami has been forecast to occur. I think similar things happen in Japan. And so the emergency systems in those countries have varying ways to do it. In the United States on some of the coastal community in Oregon and California, sirens go off. We have something in the United States called the NOAA Weather Radio.
The NOAA Weather Radio is this disgusting thing that, when a warning gets issued, it goes on and it wakes you up, as my wife reminds me most recently, when ours went off. Those things would have gone off. I believe crawlers along the weather channel. I believe that the Bob Ryan's of the west coast, their TV stations would have interrupted and mentioned the warning if the warning had been issued. I mean, that's what happens in this country. That's what we've got to do in other countries.
But a key point that everyone, I think, needs to remember about all of this is the way that the citizens of a given country are warned, the country itself has to figure out. I mean, Japan has a system. The United States has a system. We can offer that system. We can provide advice. But in the final analysis, the governments of the countries in the affected area are going to have to figure out what the system is.
We have a system that we use in Africa to get weather information out. It's a very, very low-tech system. It is a radio that has a little wheel on it. That wheel is -- you wind it. It's a solar radio, but you can also generate a little bit of backup power. We use a satellite system, then, to broadcast down to those radios. And that's how they get weather information. You could do something like that.
There's something in South Asia called the RANET, which I apologize for not knowing the "R" part of it. But it's an automated network and satellites downlink to it. So there are ways that you can do it. You just have to have the collective will that you want to do it. And all of that is what's going to be talked about in Brussels.
QUESTION: What do you think are the main challenges for this system, this program?
BG KELLY: People have to act differently than we've acted in the past -- not a technical issue. Oh, and incidentally, people have to get out of their comfort zone. Meteorologists have to talk to oceanographers, and oceanographers have to talk to biologists, and biologists have to talk to sociologists. And satellite folks have to stop thinking that the solution is purely satellites, to become aware that it's a mix of things. So people have to move out of a comfort zone that they've been in for a number of years. So in my mind, it is that. We are moving from what I would call a science challenge to a sociological challenge.
Now, you put that in the paper and my meteorologist friends will get upset with me; and my space community friends will get the -- the Italian Space Agency will get mad at me; the Russian Space Agency will be mad at me.
QUESTION: What advances have been made in the prediction of volcanic eruptions?
BG KELLY: Not a lot. Advances have been made, but we still cannot forecast an earthquake, and we still cannot -- and I should point out that you bring up a good point.
Everyone on tsunamis is focusing on the earthquake. But remember, tsunamis have been and will be in the future generated by undersea volcanoes erupting and mudslides. Because in the bottom of the ocean, you've got big mountains just like you have on land, and when you get landslides -- anything that can perturb the water column in a big way and can input energy into that water column in a massive way -- can generate a tsunami. So most of the tsunamis that have occurred in the Atlantic and the Pacific have occurred not because of earthquakes, but because of volcanic eruptions and landslides. So don't just focus on earthquakes.
But research is giving us some potential abilities, and the space scientists think they are coming up with indicators, if certain things happen on the earth, that's a precursor of an earthquake occurring within a short period after that. But it's a brave soul that's going to forecast an earthquake or a volcano.
I think of the recent problems out in the Pacific Northwest with Mount St. Helens, everyone was concerned about it; and there's all kinds of indications that there's instability there, but no one's making up 24-, 48- or 7-day forecasts about when it's going to erupt again.
QUESTION: Do you have the information, is Russia going to take part in this program?
BG KELLY: Russia has. The Russian Space Agency has tended to have the lead for the Government of Russia. Russia has been involved in this from the very beginning. And I'm not sure how many from Russia will come, but I know there will be a minister whose portfolio is full of the space program thing, so Russia has been involved since the very first. And I would say that the Russian Hydromet Service is involved in it also.
QUESTION: Given the urgency of the issue of the tsunami, do you think that there will be more of an allocation of resources of money towards this in the upcoming Brussels meeting?
BG KELLY: I'm not sure that the Brussels meeting is going to get down to talking about allocation of funds. I believe the Brussels meeting is going to say, the first thing GEOS needs to do is figure out what we need to do around the world. I do not believe that funds are an issue. I think that the challenge may be coordinating on the funds, and the UN is talking about -- at least I've seen statements from them -- that what we need to do is, within all the relief dollars that have been given, take 10 percent of them for early warning systems. And there was just a recent meeting in Thailand at the end of January, and I believe that the governments that were there and the international organizations that were there -- at least according to the declaration I've seen that came out of it -- indicated that they were looking to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission to try to pull together the elements of the system. And then I think we'll get the UN relief agencies to handle the dollars.
Now, the Government of Australia has committed to making dollars available to an early warning system. The Government of Japan has committed, and the Government of Germany, as I understand it, has committed dollars -- the Chancellor has committed that they'll make some dollars available for systems. So I don't think funds are going to be the issue. Coordinating them, I think, is going to be the challenge.
And almost all the UN agencies will be in Brussels, so I'm sure we'll get into a lively discussion about -- you know, UNDP, UNEP -- the relief -- it's truly amazing.
QUESTION: How many countries are going to be in Brussels?
BG KELLY: Well, right at the moment, I think, 30 for sure, and so I don't know exactly how many because the EC, which is hosting it, has only recently started releasing who's coming and people are still responding. The story I tell everyone is I have colleagues around the world in an unnamed country, a person who's been working with me on this, and he says, "A minister from our country is not coming." Okay. I saw the list yesterday from the EC, and guess what, a minister from that country is coming. And so I think we're still in the formative stages of how many are coming. So it's at least 30 and we're also still getting countries joining. So last week Malaysia joined. And so I think the tsunami has, in fact, helped get people to be interested in it.
So that's a non-answer. I think we'll probably know best closer to the 14th or 15th of February.
MR. BRAZIER: Any more questions?
(No response.)
BG KELLY: Okay, thank you.
