Elections in Iraq

1:00 P.M. EST

MR. DENIG: Well, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Washington Foreign Press Center. I'm glad you could join us today on especially relatively short notice, but dealing with, I think, an extremely important topic for the future of the Middle East and, by implication, the rest of the world: the upcoming Iraqi elections on Sunday. I want to emphasize, as we did in the invitation, this is a background briefing, so if you would please make your attribution to a senior State Department official. You can, of course, as is usual in background briefings, quote directly. You can have direct quotes, or indirect, as you wish, but the attribution should be senior State Department official.

Please, sir, have a seat. We were just reiterating that it's a background briefing and attribution is to a senior State Department official.

Just for your own personal knowledge, then, I would like to introduce our briefer. He is a very experienced, professional diplomat and has been working on the Iraq issue, and especially the Iraq election issues, and he'll have a few opening remarks, and after that we'll take your questions. Because we're limited in time and can only go until quarter to 2:00, I would ask you initially when you ask your questions, please, just not, not encapsulated four or five, okay? And then, as time allows, we will go around again, but initially, please, just one. Okay? Thanks so much.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Thanks very much. Thank you for inviting me here today and it's my pleasure to give you an overview of the Iraqi elections. I'm briefly going to talk a little bit about the overall political transition in Iraq, a little bit about process, a little bit about U.S. policy, and then we'll get to your questions because I think there's no need for extensive briefing. I think all of you are quite familiar with the mechanics and what's been going on with the elections. This has been a story for quite some time now.

In terms of the transition, I think it's just useful to put it over -- in a context overall. What we are seeing now is part of an overall process that began with liberation in April 2003. The first phase of the transition was from April 2003 to June 28th, 2004. That was the period of the administration of Iraq by the Coalition Provisional Authority and the Iraqi Governing Council. The signal accomplishment of that period was the drafting of the Transitional Administrative Law, which established the rules for the political transition as a whole and the process that we're in right now. And, of course, that was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 1546.

From June 28th until sometime next month, there is the period of the Interim Iraqi Government, which, as you will recall, was a government that was appointed, established with limited powers. This reflected an Iraqi desire not to have a government make decisions that would be binding for future generations of Iraqis that had not been elected, a non-elected government.

So the main job for the Interim Government was to prepare for the elections that will be taking place -- well, actually, are taking place, since the overseas voting has already started, as you know, in Australia this morning, and will be taking place in Iraq on Sunday.

The elections are for the establishment of a Transitional National Assembly of 275 members who will be responsible for selecting, by indirect means, a president; to be specific, a council of presidency, three members, the president and two vice presidents, who will then select a prime minister, who will then select a cabinet, all subject to approval by the Transitional Assembly.

Perhaps the more important job of the Transitional Assembly is to draft the constitution and then to ratify the permanent constitution by means of a referendum, and then finally to prepare for national elections under the constitution, all of this by December 2005.

So what we're seeing is a very important step, but a step in an overall political transition.

A few brief points on process because I think you're all pretty familiar with this. As I mentioned, the overseas voting has actually already begun in Australia. It will be conducted in 14 countries, including the United States, today, tomorrow and Sunday. In Iraq there will be 14.27 million voters registered. That's the electorate. They'll be voting at about 5,000 polling centers located throughout the country. There will be special provisions for same-day registration and other flexibility in the more difficult areas in terms of security, especially Nineveh Province and Al-Anbar Province.

I think you're all aware now that the names of the candidates have actually been published by the Electoral Commission of Iraq. And I would also note that the International Mission for Iraqi Elections has arrived in Baghdad and is preparing for the process observation, not traditional observation or monitoring as we know it from other elections because of the security situation, but a process observation.

Finally, just some notes on U.S. policy. The most important point that I would want to emphasize is that the United States Government has no preconceived outcome to this election. We have no preference as far as candidates or slates of candidates. Our commitment is to a credible and transparent process in support of the Iraqis. This is an Iraqi-run election. The Iraqis are out front, principally the Electoral Commission and the Interim Government in a supporting role, particularly as regards security.

We recognize that there are many challenges to holding these elections. That's perhaps to be expected in a country that has not had credible and transparent elections in at least 40 years and has been faced with a very difficult security situation for the last year and a half.

So we recognize the challenges, but -- and we anticipate that the elections will not necessarily be pretty, but they will be a very significant milestone in the development of Iraqi democracy. And we hope that they will have a transformative effect on not only Iraq, but indeed the region as a whole.

And with that, I'll end my comments and open it up to questions.

MR. BRAZIER: If you would, when making your questions, state your name and your organization, please.

QUESTION: Michael Backfisch, Germany's business daily Handelsblatt. Question marks about the potential of the Iraqi security forces, and especially the numbers. Could you give us a breakdown of how many Iraqi troops we have, military, police, local police, border control?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I'm afraid I really can't. That's a little beyond what I was expecting to brief on today. I'm talking about the elections, and that's kind of a question about the security forces. I know there has been a considerable discussion about that, and this is really not my area. This is an area that's covered by the Department of Defense, and I think you would probably want to talk to them about the specifics of the Iraqi security forces.

What I can tell you is a few things. First, with regard to the elections, the Ministry of the Interior is overall responsible for the Iraqi security in Iraqi elections, and it will have the leading role, I think especially in the 14 out of the 18 provinces where conditions are relatively secure, relatively stable. There will be a larger role for the multinational forces of Iraq in the other four provinces.

But I think your question has more to do with the long-term development of the training of the forces, and I think I'm just not going to answer that one since it's a little further away from the topic of our brief today, if that's all right.

Yes.

QUESTION: You --

MR. BRAZIER: State your name, please.

QUESTION: Loic Berrou with the French TV, TF 1. You mentioned observers. It's pretty confusing for us not OSCE, obviously. Are they UN, are they party-based observers, local observers, or are they --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. What there is is an extensive domestic observation process that has been organized by the Electoral Commission. And these are Iraqis, these are domestic observers. [Senior State Department Official Two], you had some numbers, I think, on those.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: Yeah --

QUESTION: They're pretty impressive, the numbers -- these people --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: There are up to 55,000 people representing --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: Iraqi NGOs --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah -- now, 55,000. Now, where you have to distinguish here is between the observers themselves, which are about 21,000, and then party members who are observing on behalf of their parties, where the remainder are about 34,000, okay?

And so as in elections in the United States, where you have representatives of the Democratic and the Republican Parties watching and then you have NGOs, this is a similar setup here. And this has all been organized by the Electoral Commission of Iraq and has received extensive support from the National Democratic Institute, in terms of training for these observers.

The international component is much smaller, and the latest figure I have is that there will be approximately 129 international observers. This project -- this is being coordinated through the International Mission for Iraqi Elections, which was originally established under the auspices of Elections Canada at the Ottawa Conference, 19th and 20th of December.

And this is a process review of the elections. In other words, they're going to be focused on the procedures that are used, rather than necessarily a field observation.

Yes, sir.

QUESTION: Let me turn now --

MR. BRAZIER: Could you please state your name and your organization?

QUESTION: Marc Crepin, Radio France. At which level do you think this election is going to be a success?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, I'm leery of making any specific predictions, okay, and especially in terms of numbers. But there's every reason to believe that there will be a heavy turnout in the northern provinces, and also in the southern half of Iraq. The question mark is -- and the Iraqis and we are well aware of this challenge, is in the central region, the regions that are, you know, identified as predominantly Sunni. And I think that the question here has to do mostly with voter intimidation.

Polling indicates that across the country there is a majority in favor of participating in the elections. Even in the Sunni areas, it's a slim majority, but it's still a majority of the population who would like to vote. But the question of voter intimidation by the insurgents and by the foreign terrorists is particularly strong in the central areas.

Yes, ma'am.

QUESTION: Reha Atasagun with the Turkish Television. Concerning Kirkuk, which Turkish Government regards as a mirror of Iraq because of its multiethnic population, what is your response to Turkey concerns that this election could be divisive and even could lead to an unrest between the ethnic groups, even lead to a breakup? If now or after the elections. Do you share these concerns?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, there is a process in place for dealing with the concerns about Kirkuk. These are recognized in the Transitional Administrative Law, and in particular I would draw your attention to Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law, which lays out a process, which I don't think we need to go into in great detail here, but the point is that there is a process that has been laid out for dealing with the status of Kirkuk.

In terms of what's happening on the ground now in Kirkuk, we understand that the elections are going forward, and that there was -- we understand that the report of -- there was a report earlier of some resignations, but that the Electoral Commission is up and functioning in Kirkuk. And so I think that the elections will go forward there.

This is primarily -- the ultimate status of Kirkuk is an issue for Iraqis to resolve by means of the process that they have laid out in the Transitional Administrative Law and through the process of the constitution drafting.

QUESTION: Just a follow up, correct me if I misunderstood. You don't agree with the concerns of the Turkish Government?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, what --

QUESTION: Even with the --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, what I'm saying is that I think that everyone recognizes, especially Iraqis, recognize the sensitive nature of the situation in Kirkuk, and that is why there are special measures in place in the Transitional Administrative Law. That is why Kirkuk is singled out, actually, for some special treatment in Article 58.

So I think everyone is aware of the concern, but the Iraqis have themselves laid out a process for dealing with these concerns.

QUESTION: Thank you.

QUESTION: Jose Calvo, El Pais, Spain. In anticipation probably of this week, Sunni participation, Ambassador Negroponte and others have said that there will be opportunities in the process to integrate the Sunnis. How do you -- could you elaborate, or which kind of ideas are there?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, the first thing I want to emphasize is that that's going to -- it's going to be up to the Iraqis, and they will have opportunities to do that. And one of the most heartening developments that we have seen in the past few months is that the leadership of the political class, if you will, in Iraq, including prominent Shia politicians and prominent Kurdish politicians, are concerned about Sunni non-participation in the elections, and are concerned about outreach. So it is -- and that's good, because it will be up to them to carry this out under the transitional government.

Having said that, that it's an Iraqi process, there are several opportunities that I would point to. There are opportunities that the Iraqis can avail themselves of. First of all, there is the appointment of the government. This is an American-style, if you will, Transitional Administrative Law, in that the executive positions are not concurrently legislative positions. In other words, what I'm saying is that the council, the presidency, the prime ministership and the cabinet, they will not be -- they don't have to be sitting members of the assembly, and indeed, if they are selected from the assembly, they would have to resign their seats.

So there is an opportunity for greater political inclusion through the indirect process that I mentioned. There is the process of drafting the constitution. The Transitional Administrative Law lays out only that the Transitional National Assembly is responsible for doing it, for drafting it and ratifying it; it doesn't specify a mechanism. So a mechanism will have to be developed and presumably that can be a more inclusive mechanism. I mean, for example, and I'm not saying this is going to be the case, but there could be a drafting commission that could bring in other members.

The ratification of the Transitional Administrative Law will have to be by means of a national referendum. There is a provision of the Transitional Administrative Law, Article 61C, which states that if the draft constitution is rejected by any three provinces, then the constitution will have failed. So there is another opportunity for inclusion and for making sure that the document does represent a broad consensus across the country.

So there are a series of things like that.

QUESTION: Can I follow up? Are you aware of any kind of negotiation in Iraq on these kind of things, between the Iraqi --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, there has been an extensive effort, and not just in the, you know, not just in the context of the immediate run-up to the elections, but really for the entire length of the interim government, there has been an effort by Prime Minister Allawi and President Ghazi to reach out to those who are disaffected from the system to bring them in, starting with an amnesty law allowing anyone to put down arms and reject violence and commit to the political process. And this has been a continuous effort by Prime Minister Allawi and I'm sure it will continue.

QUESTION: Philippe Gelie, Le Figaro. In his interview to the New York Times today, the President said that he doesn't anticipate any -- whatever the government will be after the election, he doesn't anticipate it to ask for withdrawal of the U.S. troops. And it sounds like he has a pretty clear view of what will come out of this election. So since we are off the record--

Mr. Brazier: We’re on background.

QUESTION: --I would like to know, what is your view of the most probable outcome of this election?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, on outcomes, I think it would not really be proper for me to speculate on this. I think that on the point about withdrawal, the United States has been very clear that if we were asked by a sovereign government to leave, we would respect that decision.

I think what the President was saying was not so much a speculation about the outcome of the election, but rather a recognition that I think is widespread in Iraqi political classes, that the role of the coalition is absolutely necessary, the role of the multinational forces is necessary for the security of the country. I think, there's a broad consensus that over time the Iraqi security forces will assume the role for protecting the country from its internal and its external enemies.

But I think there's also widespread recognition that that capacity is not there now. And although I can't get into numbers, I think that there's a broad recognition that that's the case. And so it's a necessary situation that the multinational force remain, too, for --

QUESTION: Still, in the progress of most of the parties there, there is a plan asking for the departure of the U.S. troops. So what do you make of that?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, this will be something that will be a topic of discussion, I imagine, when the Transitional National Assembly is seated. But I don't want to prejudge what would be decided by an Iraqi Interim Government or the Transition Government, or indeed, the outcome of the election.

Yes.

QUESTION: Thomas Cantaloube, French daily, Le Parisien.

Going back to the question of the turnout, you've been very careful in not stating any goals about turnout. But it's obvious that if there is only a 10-person turnout, for example, it won't be a success and it will also mean that the Transitional Assembly won't have much of a sport. So what would be a realistic goal of turnout for the profit to be able to carry on itself?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. Well, I don't think we want to be in the business of attempting to predict what the turnout is going to be or in setting benchmarks.

First of all, the most important thing is that the process be credible to the Iraqi people. And there is a very independent Electoral Commission, which is, in effect, a fourth branch of government. It's independent from the Executive, the National Council and the Judiciary. It will have the responsibility for certifying and for collating the reports of the domestic observers. And all of this will be, you know -- so, in the first instance, we will be looking to the commentary by the Electoral Commission, and more broadly by the Iraqi people as a whole.

I think, as I mentioned to you, the furthest I would go in terms of expectations is that we think that there will be significant turnout in the north and in the south, south of Baghdad. And regrettably, there will be -- it's reasonable to expect that there will be greater threat to voters in the central provinces.

QUESTION: Roland Watson from The London Times. Can you give us an idea of what voting is going to look like, where polling stations are, and what voters are going to see in terms of security? Are they going to see Iraqis in military uniforms or police uniforms? And what kind of American presence will they be able to see? Will it be up front, behind the scenes, around the corner?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: The polling centers themselves are going to be, I think, to the best of my knowledge, they have not actually been announced yet. The locations will be announced at the last minute for security reasons. So I don't want to go too far.

QUESTION: (Inaudible) different types of places?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. Well, I mean, I think that they will be public institutions. They have been selected with security in mind. That is to say that they are sufficiently removed from roads and things like that, that they can accommodate large numbers of people. There will be multiple polling stations within each polling center. In other words, multiple ballot boxes, if you will, so that they can accommodate fairly large numbers of people at one time.

As I said, in 14 of the 18 provinces, it should be -- there should be -- really, there should not be any visible multinational forces at the polling stations, absent some sort of need. Obviously, if there's some sort of terrorist outrage, the multinational forces will be able to support and respond. In the other provinces, it will vary province by province. I think there will probably be a more visible multinational forces presence in some of the more disturbed provinces, particularly, perhaps, in Al Anbar and in Mosul. But in all cases, the Electoral Commission is in charge of the process and its workers, and they are the ones who will be conducting the elections.

QUESTION: If I may, can I just clarify?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Go ahead.

QUESTION: In the 14 so-called "safe" provinces, there will be an international presence, but it won't be visible? I mean, is there any areas where there will not be multinational forces?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Where there will -- well, I mean, the multinational forces throughout Iraq are going to be supporting the Ministry of the Interior. The Ministry of the Interior has the lead responsibility. Frankly, I don't want to get into the specific arrangements for obvious reasons. It's not to anyone's interest that we broadcast what the security arrangements are going to be in specific terms for the polling stations. But they will be available to support is the way I would want to leave it.

QUESTION: Did you just say that the polling centers would be announced?

MR. BRAZIER: Remember to state your name.

QUESTION: Fine. Philippe Gelie.

Did you just say that the polling centers will be announced today or, I mean, the people who are going to vote --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah, I honestly don't know at what point the polling centers will be announced, and I'll have to --

QUESTION: So that means the voters don't know yet where they should go on Sunday to vote? Sorry.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I believe that is correct. I believe that is correct.

A PARTICIPANT: All of them.

QUESTION: I have another question.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. But I'd like to get back to you on that specific, on that point, yeah.

QUESTION: It may sound like a detail, but I met this morning at the Maryland polling station here a man who showed me his finger full of blue ink and said, this is a matter of pride for me. But I can't help thinking of those people back there for whom it might be a death threat, and they will have to hide their hands for days maybe. Do you address this concern? Do you think it's a valid one?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, this is something that, I mean, this is what the Electoral Commission of Iraq has chosen and it's their decision. And I think you would have to, you'd really have to address the question more to them. But I would say that in, as with many things in this election, there is a trade-off between transparency and credibility and security. And the Electoral Commission has done a lot to strike the right balance, for instance, in numbers of polling stations and announcing ahead of time, but I think, also, with regard to the question of the indelible ink, it's important that Iraqi voters not feel that the election is non-transparent or that there is a possibility of fraud. That's enormously important given the fact that there have not been free and fair elections in Iraq in 40 years.

QUESTION: So what they say is, “survive the thing,” right?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, and you know, I have to say in this regard that so far, the indications are that the Iraqi voters are very courageous about this. And I think, for them, they recognize that the stakes are very high. It's difficult to sit here in Washington and come up with the calculation that plays in the mind of the average Iraqi, but certainly one of the things they have to consider is the consequences of not voting and the dangers of the system that they had for the previous 40 years. And so I think most Iraqis have been very courageous and much more willing to take risks than perhaps those of us who are more accustomed to voting on a regular basis would be prepared to do to exercise our rights.

Yeah.

QUESTION: Reha Atasagun with the Turkish Television again.

Can you tell us that you know everything concerning voter registration has been done properly? Because you gave me the example of 58, Article 58 of the Administration Law, whereas, you know, even in that area, not only us, not only the Turkish Government, everybody is concerned about the not proper registration because allowing some of the Kurds coming to Kirkuk in great numbers like 100,000. Can you say you've definitely done the proper registration in the system? Do you have any concerns about the government?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah, well, I mean, this is ultimately something that the Electoral Commission of Iraq will have to address. It's their program and they have administered the voter registration both in Kirkuk and everywhere in the country.

A word about voter registration, just so that everyone understands the process: It was based on the public distribution system, the food distribution system database. So this was felt to be the most accurate database of people living in -- of Iraqis living in the country. That generated about 13.9 million names when it was sorted by eligibility criteria. The way it worked -- this was done back in the fall -- is that everyone who is in this public distribution system essentially received an opportunity to challenge the information. They were provided with the information as part of their monthly food distribution, and then they could challenge it. So people were registered automatically, and then they had the opportunity to correct any misinformation that may have come into the database. And that's how the number of 14.27 million was generated. I think the Electoral Commission has a great deal of confidence in the integrity of the system and we don't have any reasons to doubt it.

MR. BRAZIER: We have ten minutes left, so those first who haven't asked questions, please, anyone who hasn't asked a question? Sure. State your name and your affiliation.

QUESTION: Francois Clemenceau, Europe 1 Radio.

Concerning the outcome and what the Assembly will look like after the election, if the turnout is above 50 percent, there is many reasons to think that there will be a very good representation of the political spectrum in Iraq, and that will probably favor combination alliances. If the turnout is really below 50 percent, don't you think that this system that has been chosen -- to represent factions in the parliament -- will be probably a bit explosive?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, you know, the first thing they tell us in this business is not to answer hypothetical questions, and we've got a couple of hypotheticals there, so I'm a little reluctant to go too far down that line, but what I would say is that, on the proportional representation system, the single district proportional representation system, this was chosen by the United Nations last spring as part of the -- in connection with the Brahimi mission. Carina Pirelli from the UN traveled out and basically worked in connection with the Governing Council, the then-Governing Council to establish this system.

There are pros and cons to any political system. The advantage, it was felt, to this system is it didn't require a census or districting, both of which, in the context of Iraq, would have been very difficult to carry out, especially in the timeframe that was needed. So, I think that this is a process that, for a variety of operational reasons, made the most sense. It was, for example, the system that was used in Afghanistan, just by way of analogy.

And as I pointed out at the beginning, there are -- we can't treat the election in isolation, we also have to look at the Transitional Administrative Law and the procedural safeguards that are built into the Transitional Administrative Law, which, you know, broadly speaking and without getting into a whole lot of technical detail, essentially ensures the principle of majority rule, but respect for minority rights, as in any democracy. And so I think that there will be opportunities for political inclusiveness further down the line. And we're very supportive of any efforts at political inclusiveness.

QUESTION: Quick yes-and-no-type question. (Laughter.) Remember, we're dealing with the French TV.

There is at least one scenario, if not several, where the factions or the Assembly would not agree on a draft constitution by August 1st. Could there be another election in this year in that case?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I believe that there is -- well, if they were unable to reach consensus on the constitution?

QUESTION: Mm-hmm.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. I believe there is a clause in the Transitional Administrative Law, which allows for a six-month delay in the process. Does that answer your question?

QUESTION: That would be December 2005 or something like that.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, December 2005 is when the elections are currently scheduled for, and I think there is a possibility for a six-month delay. So it could be delayed up to, what, June of 2006?

QUESTION: But they would not vote again for a new constitutional assembly? It would be the same assembly; they would have to draft another constitution, is that it?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yeah. There's a provision for delay. There is no -- I'm not aware that there's a provision for reselecting another National Assembly, no -- for another election for a National Assembly, no. The Transition, as it lays out, calls for a referendum in October and then national elections in December. It can be delayed, but I don't know that there is a process for it.

Yeah.

QUESTION: And the other very quick one is, it's my understanding that the usual figures we have about the composition, the ethnic composition of the Iraqi people is 20 years old and not based on any kind of census. Is that true? Because that is --

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I believe that is true, yes.

QUESTION: Do you have any updated figures about this?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Which is one of the reasons why it's dangerous to be too speculative on questions of turnout or ethnic participation and all of this. This is all based on sort of rough estimates rather than by --

QUESTION: Do you have any reason to think that the Shiites make more than 60 percent, for instance, of the people now?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I wouldn't want to speculate on that, because it's essentially an unknowable -- I mean, you know, people can speculate, but it's -- there's not real hard data to indicate that. And one further point: I hope -- my understanding is that the Electoral Commission is not registering voters by ethnicity. So we should not expect in, you know, three weeks, that there's going to be a breakdown, you know, Shia, Sunni, Assyrian, et cetera. The important thing is Iraqi nationality. One can sort of adduce it by looking at the provinces, but that's very rough and ready -- a rough and ready measurement.

Yeah.

QUESTION: I have a question. You said the elections are part of a larger process. Michael Backfisch, Germany's Business Daily, Handelsblatt.

Imagine the degree of violence won't decrease within a year or so. Could you tell us what repercussions that would have on U.S. involvement in Iraq?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Did I say that? I'm not sure I said that.

I don't think that the insurgency is likely to subside in the near term. We expected that violence would increase in the run-up to the elections, and regrettably, that has proved to be the case. And we don't expect that it is immediately going to go away. But clearly, a government that is more legitimate because it's elected will be in a stronger position to, for instance, develop security forces, more capable security forces that will eventually be able to provide for the external and internal security of the country.

QUESTION: One quick follow-up. I mean, you know, the toppling of Saddam's regime, the transfer of sovereignty, all these milestones actually have not led to a decrease in violence, so the question is, what, if it continues like that for a longer term?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, I think that this is what -- the solution to the problem has to be a political solution and elections are a part of the political solution by establishing a legitimate government authority and one that can be inclusive and bring as many people into the process as possible. There is obviously a military component to this, which everyone is familiar with, but there has to be a political process as well to counter the insurgency.

QUESTION: London Times again. Who -- when does the counting start? Who does it? Where does it take -- I mean, you're not going to tell me where it takes place obviously. But is it taking place on a sort of province-by-province basis? Or what kind of -- you see what I'm getting at; and when will we know the results?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: I believe that the -- under the Transitional Administrative Law, the Electoral Commission is responsible for announcing the results by the 15th of February. It's either the 15th or maybe the 20th. I'm not sure yet. And I think that the Electoral Commission is confident they will have an idea before that about the results, but I'm a little reluctant to get into their internal procedures. I really think that would be a question that ought to be directed to the Electoral Commission itself. I don't feel comfortable speaking for them.

QUESTION: But do you have some idea if five days after the Sunday or five days before 15 February?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, as I say, the Electoral Commission has indicated to us it's confident it will be able to deal with this quickly, but it's really a question for the Electoral Commission. It's not for us. I think there will probably be some indications sooner, but you would really have to direct it to the Electoral Commission.

QUESTION: Loic Berrou with the French TV. Did the transitional authorities in Baghdad or this Administration ever considered at one point, at any point, postponing these elections? Or is it out of -- never been considered at all?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: The question of delay -- the U.S. has been very supportive of the position of the Iraqi Government, the official position, and the positive of the Electoral Commission of holding the elections by the 30th of January.

I'm sure you saw a lot of press stories of various individuals in Iraq pressing for delay. It's important to note that none of these were official statements. And indeed, the official statements of the President, the Prime Minister, and most importantly, the Electoral Commission were always that the elections would take place on the 30th of January. It's important to note that even the Electoral Commission has never even received any sort of official request for a delay. So in other words, people floated the idea and it came out in the press, but there was never any official consideration of a delay.

MR. BRAZIER: Last question, please. Last question.

QUESTION: I have one. A lot of American commentators argue that if this fails it would actually make things worse and so they imply that you take a big risk here. Do you agree?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Well, I think that, on balance, if you look at this as part of the overall -- of the overall transition, I think that people may have made a similar argument before June 28th about the transfer of sovereignty. And I think that, on balance, most observers would say, certainly we would say, that progress has been made and the situation has, politically in Iraq, been improved by the restoration of sovereignty. And the Interim Government has made substantial advances in dealing with the concerns of Iraqis, including on the security forces; for example, building up security capacity in a way that reflects what Iraqis feel they need, addressing issues of law and order and criminality and kidnapping and ordinary street crime, as well as the more spectacular, politically motivated violence that we see every day in the West.

So I think a similar thing can be said with regard to the elections. We are quite confident that this is the right step forward, that this is necessary to bring about a government that has enhanced legitimacy with its people, that can make fundamental decisions about the future of Iraq with the confidence of knowing that it is an elected government.

MR. BRAZIER: I'm sorry, that's all we have time for today. I thank our briefer also for coming and sharing with us on a very busy day for him. And just a reminder that this is for background and the attribution was senior State Department official.

Thank you.